Hysteria

Yes, somebody lied.

We bought it.
Hook, line and sinker.

I have been pondering headlight stands in the garage all day, and macro-economics.

Divergent thoughts, sure, but that is how I work.
Everything is part of the whole, you know.
The locations of headlights on a Model T relate to the world in a larger sense.

I have been thinking about contemporary media and it’s impact on our current economic situation. Thinking about how our current 24-7 feed of how bleak things are impact our perceptions of the national and global sector.

It wasn’t too long ago that these folks were extolling the greatness of our situation.

If I had a stick to beat all of the people that told me “this is the greatest time to buy a house” – I would wear the stick out.

When you look into their eyes, you can see the sorrow and disbelief.
Somebody lied.
And people believed it.

And we are, perhaps, in the same situation now.
Things are bad, but they are bad in part from the same mass hysteria that generated the housing boom.
If enough folks say that the roof is on fire, you are gonna run out of the building.

As I have been thinking about headlight stands, I have been thinking about this.

There are a great number of experts who said the markets could never fail. The same people who are now saying they might never recover. And their audience still believes them.

That is the rub, for me.

I have, previously, mentioned my distaste for the irrational beliefs of constant growth planning. Really, constant growth? How is that possible?
Yet here we are, gob-smacked that things have gotten worse.
In spite of the fact that we started to believe our own untruths.

We wanted to believe in the lies that the financial “experts” were saying. If the experts believe it, who are we to argue.
But these same experts didn’t believe, as evidenced by swings driven by trivial market reporting.

The experts have demonstrated a lack of confidence by allowing their decision making to be impacted entirely by short term financial reporting.
And continue to do so.

So, sack up, financial experts – or shut up.

There are things to believe in.
But you have to believe in them.
There are industries that will be essential to the world, going forward.
I could illustrate them, but my earnest interest in them is not enough, it is our collective initiative that is required to drive any manner of recovery.
Half-witted Ponzi schemes and media driven mania are our current bailiwick.
Finding true value and investing in it are essential.
Value that contributes to both national and global health and success.

The media has not said this, in part, because the experts have not said this.
The experts won’t say it because they key off of the media, in part.
The feedback loop is continuous.
The lying is perpetuated.

I can look you in the eyes and tell you that I can make something out of a raw hunk of steel – and then do that.
Because I believe I can.
And I then do.
That force and singularity of vision is what is required to drive any recovery.
There are people and industries with that same will, that are will be the future of our economy, which deserve investment review.

I could fall in line and think that the sky is falling, the markets are crashing and the world is ending – but I won’t
The people saying those things are the same that told us all, two years ago, that we would see DOW at 40,000. They said that AIG and Citi were solid. They liked Madoff.
They believed their own lies.

When enough people tell you how great something is, it is reason to be suspect.
The Cheesecake Factory is a fine example of this phenomenon.
The Cheesecake Factory is not great.
It is marginal, at best – but they give you a shit ton of food, so people like it.
Somebody that loves a shit ton of food told their pals it was great and it went from there.

Enough people said the market was great, so everybody believed it.

Somebody lied.

I think I know what to do about the headlight stands, by the way.